Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 22.953623 24.968849 27.142138 29.670716 32.545211 35.727208 39.538062
2026-01-11 19.896284 22.690063 25.915992 29.959620 34.955055 41.009156 49.036409
2026-01-18 17.543780 20.713801 24.566172 29.682949 36.444629 45.293836 58.147221
2026-01-25 15.891207 19.284245 23.580154 29.565663 37.944016 49.684203 68.251853
2026-02-01 14.653806 18.189243 22.821193 29.544551 39.445191 54.210596 79.540603
2026-02-08 13.626282 17.235769 22.103028 29.421296 40.691417 58.481693 91.456411
2026-02-15 12.764680 16.409511 21.448720 29.264824 41.798033 62.654746 104.321909
2026-02-22 12.023015 15.676055 20.838794 29.072241 42.770655 66.723179 118.205375
2026-03-01 11.426865 15.094784 20.385724 29.048349 43.982253 71.405256 134.953363
2026-03-08 10.905969 14.578876 19.977160 29.033745 45.180063 76.269965 153.999169
2026-03-15 10.654828 14.437339 20.117484 29.921424 48.110956 85.222256 187.457173
2026-03-22 10.159242 13.892431 19.581082 29.593789 48.697590 89.333352 209.765761
2026-03-29 9.745613 13.459405 19.209172 29.549586 49.904465 95.313834 242.147376
2026-04-05 9.425590 13.152623 19.019961 29.815792 51.796406 103.492810 288.529177
2026-04-12 9.028679 12.700874 18.558122 29.532814 52.494252 108.910221 329.496188
2026-04-19 8.694476 12.329331 18.203424 29.413160 53.529190 115.558689 382.861543
2026-04-26 8.403850 12.011077 17.915938 29.390939 54.779636 123.238759 451.143658
2026-05-03 8.119003 11.686400 17.594480 29.268093 55.776850 130.534398 528.723995
2026-05-10 7.849927 11.373568 17.272863 29.112576 56.672862 137.867410 620.393553
2026-05-17 7.594312 11.070376 16.949039 28.921329 57.453306 145.152352 728.487043
2026-05-24 7.380259 10.826539 16.716456 28.897582 58.662711 154.475582 880.767341
2026-05-31 7.181108 10.598393 16.498160 28.883073 59.899391 164.489177 1077.557804
2026-06-07 7.113925 10.592093 16.686364 29.764208 63.744901 186.860466 1554.282162